Maritime CleanTech report shows compliance costs could exceed fuel costs and reach $200–600 per tonne CO₂ by 2035–2040.
Today, Maritime CleanTech publishes a new policy brief analysing how emerging climate regulations will impact the cost of operating fossil-fuelled vessels in European shipping.
The report, “Compliance Costs for European Shipping”, provides a detailed assessment of how EU and global regulations translate into real economic costs for shipowners across different vessel types and policy scenarios.
A unified carbon cost signal across regulations
To compare the impact of different regulatory mechanisms, the analysis introduces the concept of an implicit carbon price. This is a metric that translates compliance costs from ETS, FuelEU Maritime and IMO measures into a single cost per tonne of CO₂.
Across all scenarios, the results show a clear trend: Carbon costs increase significantly over time and converge across ship types, driven primarily by policy design rather than vessel characteristics.
“This analysis cuts through the complexity of overlapping regulations,” says Håvard Tvedte, interim CEO of Maritime CleanTech. “What shipowners ultimately face is rising and increasingly predictable cost of emissions.”
$200–600 per tonne CO₂ by mid-2030s
The analysis finds that all modelled scenarios reach an implicit carbon price in the range of $200–600 per tonne CO₂ between 2035 and 2040.
This range aligns with estimated abatement costs for low- and zero-emission fuels, indicating that regulation alone may be sufficient to trigger a shift toward alternative fuels.
EU-driven regulation, particularly FuelEU Maritime, is identified as the main driver of cost escalation, while IMO-only scenarios result in slower and lower cost increases.
“By the mid 30s we could approach a tipping point where the cost of continuing on fossil fuels meets the cost of switching,” says Tvedte. “That should change the investment logic in shipping today due to lead times for infrastructure investment, and lifetime costs for ships”.
Compliance costs set to exceed fuel costs
A key finding of the report is that compliance costs are expected to approach, and eventually exceed, fuel costs:
- By the mid-2030s, compliance costs reach parity with fuel costs
- By 2040, they can reach up to 200% of fuel costs under certain scenarios
This marks a shift in the economics of shipping, where regulatory costs become a dominant factor in operational expenditure.
Stronger financial pressure over vessel lifetime
The report also highlights that compliance costs are likely to grow faster than typical industry discount rates (around 7%). With annual cost growth estimated at 10–18%, the regulatory burden increases even in present-value terms over time.
This means that future carbon costs cannot simply be discounted away in investment decisions, they represent a growing financial risk.
A decisive window for investment
The findings point to the next decade as a critical window for action.
As vessels ordered today will operate well beyond 2050, investment decisions must account for rapidly increasing regulatory costs and evolving fuel competitiveness.
The report concludes that clearer cost signals from regulation can accelerate the transition, particularly if supported by coordinated action across the maritime value chain.
“If we use this window to build experience, infrastructure and fuel markets, European shipping can turn this transition into a competitive advantage,” Tvedte adds.
Compliance Costs for European Shipping builds on modelling developed by DNV and Maritime CleanTech. It analyses five representative ship types across multiple regulatory scenarios, including EU/UK ETS, FuelEU Maritime, and potential IMO measures.
Read the full report here: